Introduction holistic view of the mechanism of global warming.
Figure 1 shows that decarbonization measures deve-
Climate Emergency loped so far will not be sufficient, even with carbon
UN SECRETARY-GENERAL ANTONIO GUTERRES capture and storage (CCS). This data means a missing
urged all countries to declare climate emergencies in part in the big puzzle of sustainable decarbonization,
his speech at the Climate Ambition Summit and as- which the Secretary-General alludes to. Current glo-
serted that more must be done to hit net-zero emis- bal warming data has a complete picture of the level
sions (Reuters, 2020Reuters (2020). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.). He explained that global war- of CO2 content in the atmosphere (Figure 1), but ove-
ming has already become an emergency issue, and rall potential solutions are not wholly recognized due
all nations must take action. This is indeed an urgent to today`s limited understanding of the root causes of
issue, but will the wish of the UN Secretary-General CO2 emissions. Figure 1 is sad proof that the wish of
come true? The answer is no, not with today`s me- net-zero carbon will never come true unless a holistic
asures, theory, and understanding being without a picture of the root causes is drawn.
Figure 1. CO2 concentration can hardly stabilize but will not decrease (Hawksworth, 2006Hawksworth (2006). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.)
CO2 Emissions, Humidity, and Ozone (lost opportunities for useful work) must be offset
by someone, somewhere, and most likely by fos- According to the Author, Figure 2 shows the diresil fuels. This causes more “unseen” CO2 emission ct relationships between the climate, atmosphere, from “green power”: global warming, humidity, comfort, and ozone depletion. Consider a green energy system like a wind turbine or PV. Once the electricity is ge- This result shows that although there is not a nerated, it is important to trace downstream how direct CO2 emission source in this example (exit is utilized from an exergy point of view. For cept in manufacturing, installation, etc.), exergy example, if this “green” electric power is used in destructions are responsible for large amounts of an electric radiator for indoor comfort heating at additional emissions, which are almost equal to 20oC (293 K), the unit quality (exergy) of useful the emissions from a natural gas condensing boiwork demand, εdem, for heating may be calculated ler that we can directly measure and see. according to the ideal Carnot cycle:
Here, 273 K (0oC) is the reference environment condition. On the other hand, electricity is a very high-quality energy source with a unit supply exergy, εsup of 0.95 kW/kW. This means that most of the useful work potential of the generated electric power is destroyed:
The exergy rationality of using wind or solar energy in comfort heating will be only 0.07
(0.068/0.95). Figure 2. Climate loop with humidity and temperature
This amount of irreversibly destroyed exergy increase. Drawing belongs to the author, ©2020, B. Kilkis
These additional emissions due to exergy destruc- Figure 4 shows that most of the world is too
tions are unseen and are only revealed in the global humid while some parts are too dry. There are al-
warming temperatures. In other words, these emis- most no places with ideal RH values. For example,
sions are observed in the global warming context Turkey and other countries on the Belt and Road
but remain unexplained and unsolvable unless the are in the humid zone, whereas China is not. The-
exergy concept is recognized by scientists and en- se figures may partly account for the regions where
gineers. the pandemic is strongest. Humidity is related to
According to another research study by the global temperature and CO2 emissions.
Author, which mathematically relates nearly avoidable CO2 emissions to exergy destructions (Kilkis, 2021aKilkis (2021a). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.), for every destroyed exergy, the global temperature is estimated to increase by a rate of 0.256 x 10-13K/kW-h. If, for example, 2 x 1013 kW-h/year is a stable number of annual electric power generation using fossil fuels, it is estimated that exergy utilization rationality in the energy sector will rise to 0.8 in the coming decades; ∆CO2 = 0.256 x 10-13K/kW-h x 2 x 1013 x (1- 0.8) = 0.1 K/year As this estimation shows, the unseen part of emissions is responsible for about 0.1 K global temperature rise, and all decarbonization measures must be revised accordingly by taking into account the exergy destructions. Figure 4. Worldwide relative humidity atlas (H2O, 2021H2O (2021). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.)
Climate Emergency and Virus Infections There are already qualitatively established correlations between the air temperature, humidity, and other adverse weather conditions in addition to the well-known, well-observed air pollution on the anthropogenic side of the equation. Unfortunately, there has been little quantitative modeling about virus infections and the climate emergency elements so far. That is the main reason to develop a mathematical model, which is expected to guide scientists Figure 3. COVID-19 is related to CO2 and relative
humidity. Safest Relative Humidity is 50% (Lowen, towards further understanding the mathematics of
et al., 2007). such a direct link.
Figure 5. Anthropogenic and natural factors on virus infections adopted from: (Copiello & Grillenzoni, 2020Copiello & Grillenzoni (2020). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.)
A Green Building May Not Be COVID-19 Safe 1.7 x 10-4 kg/h, is calculated as follows:
Buildings are both energy-intensive and coronavirus-intensive. We spend about 90%, even more with pandemic isolation measures, of our time On the other hand, for a lignite stove with indoors. Buildings, especially with 100% fresh εsup = 0.8 kW/kW for lignite and an efficiency of air requirements against COVID-19 spread, are 0.35 without any ozone depletion potential (no refresponsible for approximately 45% of total energy rigerants), ∑CO2 is only 0.26 kg CO2/kW-h of heat consumption (Cao, Xilei, & Liu, 2016Cao, Xilei, & Liu (2016). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.; Tokazhasupply. Therefore, although the 1st Law indicates nov, et al., 2020Tokazhasupply. Therefore, although the 1st Law indicates nov, et al. (2020). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.). almost zero CO2 responsibility with COP =3, the Such a high level of energy consumption 2ⁿd Law shows that the nearly avoidable emissions means exceptionally high CO2 emission responresponsibility is 2.5 times. sibilities, and the green energy they may use may not be green, depending upon the energy usage. For example, the Chinese government considers reducing CO2 emissions in cold rural areas by replacing local coal and lignite stoves and boilers with local wind turbines. A preliminary study (Kilkis, 2021bKilkis (2021a). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.) revealed that the direct use of wind energy for heating, even with heat pumps, is not rational as claimed by the 1st Law. The refrigerant leakage from a heat pump also has a ΔCO2 -equivalent ozone depletion effect. For each kW-h of wind electricity supply, the emission responsibility based
on R32 refrigerant with a global warming potenti- Figure 6. Wind-to-Heating in Chinese Projects. Drawing
belongs to the Author, ©2020, B. Kilkis (Kılkış, 2021bKılkış (2021b). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.) al (GWP) of 677 and an assumed leakage rate, L of
recorded; if PM10 µg/m3 averaged over 1 hour is above 300, then the air quality is extremely poor. For example, in Ankara PM10 limits were exceeded 287 days out of 365 days in a year. This value is a clear indication of the severity and urgency of the case.
Figure 7. March 2020 preliminary data for Italy (Setti, et al., 2020Setti, et al. (2020). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.)
Figure 9. PM10 exceedance days in one year in Turkey (Nur, 2018Nur (2018). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.)
Figure 8. Cases per population correlation with daily PM10 exceedance (Setti et al., 2020Setti, et al. (2020). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.)
The Need for the Present Study Figure 10. 50 PM10 µg/m3 exceedances for 2019 (UCTEA Chamber of Enviromental Engineers, 2019UCTEA Chamber of Enviromental Engineers (2019). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.). The importance of such preliminary data is that in many countries, including Turkey, exceedances are According to Figure 10, only the province of high. PM10 means the amount of particulate matter Hakkari does not exceed 50 PM10 µg/m3 more than with diameters less than or equal to 10 micrometers 35 times a year. All other provinces exceed this limit
(0.01 mm) in the air (EPA Victoria, 2021EPA Victoria (2021). The source article does not provide a separate full bibliographic entry for this citation.). It nee- annually, and the limit of 50 PM10 µg/m3 is a qui-
ds to be officially monitored hourly, year-round. A te high value, already corresponding to short-term
good air quality corresponds to less than 40 PM10 unhealthy conditions, especially during the pande-
µg/m3 averaged over 1 hour. WHO limits this value mic period. Grey areas are provinces where measu-
to 20 PM10 µg/m3. Any exceedance over this limit rements are not available for more than 75% of the
has several health risks depending on the amount year.