Science-Based Solutions for a Shared and Sustainable Future in the Belt and Road Initiative

Şiir Kılkış

Abstract

Addressing common challenges for a shared and sustainable future in the Belt and Road region requires significant contributions from science, technology, and innovation. Green technologies, smart energy systems, and sustainable urbanization are among the central points of emphasis in the development plans of China and Turkey. Based on the Beijing Declaration, the Alliance of International Science Organizations was launched to support the region with science-based solutions. This study compares a sample of countries in this alliance based on research capacity as well as selected indicators under the Sustainable Development Goals. An original approach is then developed to compare knowledge production patterns across linkages in the goals based on combined searches that are visualized with chord diagrams. The results indicate the goals that are receiving more focus within knowledge production, including sustainable cities. Expected increases in urbanization are compared leading to the year 2050, and collaborative research projects that are supported by the alliance are discussed in connection with their contributions for sustainable development alongside new scientific interactions. The article concludes with evidence-based observations regarding research capacity in the Belt and Road region and opportunities for further strengthening solutions based on science, technology, and innovation now and in the decades ahead.

Keywords

Belt And RoadScienceSustainable Development GoalsTechnologyUrbanization

Full Text

Science, technology, and innovation Common Aspirations for a Shared and

have particular importance for the Belt and Road Sustainable Future

Initiative and in addressing common challenges In China, the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for for a shared and sustainable future. This context National Economic and Social Development is increases the necessity for research collaboration covering the years 2021-2025 while supporting and provides new opportunities for developing longer-term goals for the year 2035. The prinsolutions towards addressing multiple aspects of ciples of “innovation, coordination, greenness, energy, environment, health, welfare, and econopenness, and sharing” will have a central role in omy simultaneously (BRIQ, 2020) with minimal this path forward (Xinhua News Agency, 2020). or no compromise. In such a path, cross-dis-

ciplinary cooperation is essential to support a The Plan is sustaining and elevating an emphasis

dynamic understanding of socio-ecological sys- on high-quality development with technology

tems so that it is possible to navigate, manage self-sufficiency in frontier fields, including ad-

and achieve coordination between multiple ob- vanced manufacturing and integrated circuits

jectives at the interface of society and nature (Lu (Wong, 2020). Additionally, climate change is

et al, 2021). Only through such cooperation will becoming a central priority based on green and

it be possible to support decision-making to ease low-carbon development. Carbon emissions are

resource use and climate change impacts while set to peak before 2030 towards carbon neutral-

increasing synergies among system objectives ity by 2060 (Xinhua News Agency, 2020), which

for sustainable development, particularly goals would support pathways with sustainable devel-

for the year 2030 (Lu et al., 2021). opment in climate change scenarios.

Energy that is clean, low-carbon, safe, and of Turkey, upholds the vision of “producing more

efficient will take place among important areas value and sharing more fairly for a stronger and

that will be supported towards this goal. Moreo- prosperous country” (Presidency of the Repub-

ver, an innovation-driven development strategy is lic of Turkey Presidency of Strategy and Budget,

being pursued while strengthening basic research 2019a). The five pillars of the plan are based on

and promoting interdisciplinary integration, in- achieving a strong economy, competitive produc-

cluding through common technology platforms. tion and productivity, highly qualified human re-

Accelerating strategic emerging industries, in- sources and strong society, livable cities and sus-

cluding new materials, green technologies, and tainable environment, and good governance. The

infrastructure for smart energy systems is being pillar of competitive production and productivity

targeted. Long-term goals for 2035 include new includes research, development (R&D) and inno-

types of urbanization and green production for vation, critical and emerging technologies, pri-

more sustainable development towards an eco- oritized sectors and development areas as well as

logical civilization that is centered on people and directions for the science and technology system. harmonious coexistence with nature. Resource In addition, emphasis is placed on the Belt and utilization efficiency, as well as high-quality de- Road Initiative, especially the aspect of an active velopment for the Belt and Road region is further role in logistics. emphasized among the 60 proposed points (Xin- The emphasis on livable cities and sustainahua News Agency, 2020). ble environment is placed in a way that also considers the continued importance of environmentally aware urbanization, the challenge of climate change, food security, and the efficient utilization of water. In this respect, the Presidency of Turkey has also officially issued the adoption of a national strategy and action plan that supports an integrated perspective towards livable and sustainable cities that add value to human welfare and provide maximum energy efficiency (Presidency of the Republic of Turkey, 2019). The last pillar on good governance includes an emphasis on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that is being monitored based on a ded- Climate change becomes a central priority for the

China's 14th Five-Year Plan based on green and low- icated mechanism together with all responsible

carbon development. (Zhou Guoqiang/ China Daily) institutions (Presidency of the Republic of Turkey

Presidency of Strategy and Budget, 2019b). There is

In Turkey, the Eleventh Development Plan, a sound basis for collaboration on common aspira-

which covers the years 2019-2023 towards the tions for a shared and sustainable future, as foreseen

hundredth year of the foundation of the Republic for the Belt and Road region.

Directing R&D and Innovation with 28 founding member institutions, includ-

for Sustainable Development ing the Scientific and Technological Research

Council of Turkey (ANSO, 2020b). The Beijing Declaration that was adopted by According to the most recent statistics, the national scientific organizations of the Belt R&D personnel in full-time equivalents (FTE) and Road Initiative has emphasized the role of has reached 4.8 million, with R&D as a share of science, technology, and innovation in leadgross domestic product (GDP) 2.23% in China ing the way to a shared and sustainable future (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2020). In (CAS, 2016). In this landmark development, addition, researchers in FTE per million inhabitthe importance of strengthening cooperation, ants are 1224.8 (UN, 2021). An important aspect

involving young scientists and building long- of achieving the goals and targets for a shared

term cooperation was also seen as vital aspects and sustainable future will be based on directing

of this endeavor. Based on the Beijing Declara- this significant potential towards sustainability

tion, the Alliance of International Science Or- impacts in China and the collaborating countries

ganizations (ANSO) was established to support in the Belt and Road Initiative. In the context of

science-based solutions to common challenges the SDGs, indicators that are being monitored

within the Belt and Road Initiative. As a collab- for all countries include the renewable energy

orative effort, ANSO has focused on addressing share in total final energy consumption (FEC),

major challenges through R&D and innovation the energy intensity level of primary energy in

in multi-disciplinary approaches. The governing megajoules per constant GDP, and indicators

board of ANSO currently involves 9 institutions, for environmental management, including elec-

including the Chinese Academy of Sciences, tronic waste recycling (UN, 2021).

TUBITAK joined ANSO in 2018 as a founding member. (Source: TUBITAK website)

Table 1 provides a comparative view of in- Turkey, respectively (UN, 2021). When contrast-

dicators that are related to the R&D capacity for ed to the total value of final goods and services,

a sample of countries with ANSO member insti- the expenditure on R&D as a share of GDP rang-

tutions, while Table 2 involves indicators that are es between 0.12 and 2.23 where the lowest and

related to a renewable and resource-efficient fu- highest values in the sample represent between

ture for the same sample. For the purposes of this a 1.44 and at most an 18 fold difference (UN-

manuscript, the ANSO country sample is taken ESCO, 2021; TÜİK, 2020; National Bureau of

based on countries with the most R&D personnel Statistics of China, 2020). These indicators also

among countries with governing board institu- support the SDG on industry, innovation, and

tions in addition to Turkey based on the found- infrastructure (SDG9).

ing member institution. In total, 7 countries are One of the challenges is to enable R&D

included in Tables 1 and 2, namely China, Russia, and innovation capacity to be mobilized and

Turkey, Thailand, Pakistan, Hungary, and Ka- coordinated to support progress for sustainable

zakhstan in the order of FTE R&D personnel. development effectively (Kılkış, 2016). For this

Based on Table 1, the countries in the sam- reason, the purposeful direction of R&D and in-

ple involve a total of over 6 million FTE R&D novation for a shared and sustainable future is of

personnel with contributions of between 16,053 great importance for the successful mobilization

and 758,462 R&D personnel from countries oth- of the available capacity. From the perspective

er than China (UNESCO, 2021; TÜİK, 2020; Na- of sustainable development, Table 2 represents

tional Bureau of Statistics of China, 2020). When the current values for certain indicators that

scaled according to population, the values range are linked to the SDGs with a particular focus

between 335.6 and 2921.5 researchers in FTE on affordable and clean energy (SDG7) as well

per million inhabitants, with 1224.8 and 1379.4 as responsible consumption, and production

researchers per million inhabitants in China and (SDG12). Based on these values, the share of

Table 1. Comparison of Indicators for R&D Capacity.

ANSO SDG9

Country Researchers (FTE) per R&D as a share of

R&D personel (FTE)

Sample million inhabitants GDP (%)

Kazakhstan 16,053 666.9 0.12

Note: Data are based on (UNESCO, 2021; TÜİK, 2020; National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2020; UN, 2021) for the most recent year.

Table 2. Comparison of Indicators for Various SDGs

ANSO Country SDG7 SDG12

Sample Renewable energy Renewable energy Energy intensity Electronic waste

in FEC (%) production (GWh) (MJ/GDP) recycling (kg/cap)

Kazakhstan 1.62 14,318 8.19 0.56

Note: Data are based on (UN, 2021; IRENA, 2020).

renewable energy in FEC ranges between 1.62% the greatest improvement was determined to be

and 41.40%, with 11.41% in Turkey and 12.77% the impressive climb in the values for SDG9 in

in China (UN, 2021). The total renewable ener- China. Another study focused on 15 countries

gy production ranges between 3,753 and over along the Belt and Road in Central and Eastern

1.8 million gigawatt-hours (IRENA, 2020). The Europe with the advantage of determining the

amount of energy that is used to produce a unit level of coordination across society, economy,

of economic value or the energy intensity rang- environment, implementation, and cooperation

es between 3.03 and 8.33 megajoules per GDP (Huan et al., 2021). Among the 15 countries,

based on the values in Table 2 (UN, 2021). While Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were found to have a

data is not available for all countries, the amount higher urgency for progressing towards the SDGs

of electronic waste that is recycled ranges be- with sustainable progress in comparison to those

tween 0.70 and 6.98 kg per capita (UN, 2021). of the other countries (Huan et al., 2021).

R&D and innovation that is linked to improv- Beyond such analysis, however, any com-

ing these and other indicators for sustainable parison that links knowledge production across

development will be instrumental in realizing a the SDGs, which is of utmost importance for

shared, sustainable future. directing the R&D and innovation capacity for

sustainability, has not been conducted. This

Comparison of Knowledge Production manuscript primarily addresses this gap by pro-

Patterns for the SDGs viding a method to compare knowledge produc-

Various efforts have been put forth to evaluate tion patterns across the SDGs with a focus on

progress towards the SDGs, including those with the linkage between SDG9 and the other goals.

a focus on China. Xu et al. (2020) had focused on Similar to the comparisons that are provided

determining the change in an SDG Index score above, this analysis is conducted for the repre-

during the timeframe of 2000 to 2015 even before sentative ANSO country sample with a focus

the SDGs were adopted. One of the scores with on supporting a shared and sustainable future

across the Belt and Road region as a whole in latter of which focuses on decent work and eco-

line with the Beijing Declaration. nomic growth. Additionally, SDG8 focuses on

The approach that is developed in this inclusive and sustainable economic growth with

study to compare knowledge production pat- targets and indicators on material footprint.

terns in the context of the SDGs is quantified by SDG11 on sustainable cities and communities is

using combined keyword searches based on the the next most focused combination with SDG9.

keywords that are identified for 16 of the goals These are followed by SDG7 on affordable and

(SCOPUS, 2021). The search results for knowl- clean energy, as well as SDG12 on responsible

edge production for pairs of SDG9 and each goal consumption and production. The top 5 combi-

are then transferred into chord diagrams for a nation of goals with SDG9 based on knowledge

visual comparison of the knowledge production production also includes SDG3 on good health

pattern of each analyzed country. All connec- and well-being.

tions in the chord diagram are sized according to the relative dominance of a given connection.

For comparison, the results for the same key- Greater R&D and innovation with

word combinations are analyzed beyond the Belt the cooperation of countries in

and Road region for the world. the Belt and Road can be directed

As already indicated above, SDG9 on in- for transforming related advances

dustry, innovation, and infrastructure has a di- in knowledge production into

rect target for supporting R&D and domestic solutions for the region.

technology development. Within this target, progress is measured based on expenditure on

R&D as a share of GDP and human resourc- In contrast, the chord diagram for China

es in R&D (UNESCO, 2021). For this reason, in Figure 1 indicates that the knowledge pro-

the chord diagrams are established based on a duction pattern in the context of the SDGs is

combined search for SDG9 and the other SDGs directly led by the combination of SDG11 and

that allow focusing on two SDGs together in SDG9, which underlines the importance of

each search for every country. Figures 1 and R&D and innovation for supporting sustainable

2 provide the knowledge production patterns urban areas in this part of the world with rap-

across SDG9 and the other SDGs for the world id urbanization taking place. This combination and 7 ANSO countries. In total, the knowledge has additional importance for China given that production of the countries in the sample is the urban population is projected to grow anestimated to represent at least 21% of the total nually by 1.78% and the annual average rate of knowledge production for the SDGs across all

countries in the world. change in the urban share of the total population

Based on the patterns that take place in is estimated to be 1.58% between the years 2020

the first chord diagram in Figure 1, knowledge and 2025 (UN DESA, 2019). The topics that are

production in the world is primarily focused on the most researched in this linkage include ur-

topics that address both SDG9 and SDG8, the ban transportation, urban planning, and urban

growth. The next combination where knowl- in a way that is similar to the knowledge pro-

edge production is focused is at the intersec- duction pattern of China. The share of the urban

tion of SDG9 and SDG8 as also emphasized at population is already 76.1% of the total popu-

the world level. Next, SDG7 and SDG12 that is lation and continued increases to the year 2050

further important for supplying clean energy to are expected (UN DESA, 2019). As already dis-

urban areas as well as sustainable consumption cussed above, one of the pillars of the Eleventh

and production closely follow by as important Development Plan is based on livable cities and

areas of knowledge production. In this area, the sustainable environment. The most researched

most researched topics include energy utiliza- topics in this linkage include urban transport,

tion, sustainable manufacturing, and environ- urban planning, decision making, and geo-

mental pollutants. graphic information systems. Areas of knowl-

For Russia, the knowledge production pat- edge production that are also emphasized based

tern is largely dominated by the linkage of SDG9 on the results of the chord diagram for Turkey in

with SDG8, with the most important topics of Figure 1 are SDG8 as well as SDG7 and SDG12

research being those that are related to eco- that could provide support for enabling an im-

nomic development and sustainable develop- pact toward resource efficiency and renewable

ment from a management sciences perspective. energy. Life cycle assessment, renewable energy

Linkages between SDG9 and the other goals are and recycling take place within the research top-

relatively less dominant while the knowledge ics under this linkage. Moreover, SDG3 on good

production pattern that represents the linkage of health and well-being is among important areas

SDG2 on zero hunger and SDG3 on good health of knowledge production in combination with

and well-being take place at levels that are more SDG9. Based on these results, greater R&D and

similar to SDG7 on affordable and clean energy innovation with the cooperation of countries in

than those that are observed in other countries. the Belt and Road can be directed for transform-

Knowledge production in Turkey in the ing related advances in knowledge production

context of linkages with SDG9 is led by SDG11 into solutions for the region.

Figure 1. Knowledge production patterns across the SDGs for the world, China, Russia, and Turkey.

World China Russia Turkey

The knowledge production pattern of Thai- For additional comparison in the context of

land and Pakistan when approached from the SDG11 that is emphasized across multiple coun-

linkage of SDG9 with the other SDGs based on tries among the ANSO sample countries, Table

the relevant chord diagrams in Figure 2 both 3 provides the percentage of the population re-

lean towards SDG8 that is followed by SDG11, siding in urban areas, which are estimated with

SDG7, and SDG12. In both countries, SDG13 on shares between 37.2% in Pakistan and 76.1% in

climate action also has a relatively greater role Turkey in 2020 (UN DESA, 2019). By mid-cen-

with topics including greenhouse gases and ur- tury, these shares are estimated to increase with

banization. In Hungary, knowledge production a range between 52.2% in Pakistan and 86.0% in in the crossroads of SDG9 and SDG13 is among Turkey (UN DESA, 2019) with the greatest inthe prominent areas while those with SDG8, creases of 18.6% in China and 18.0% in Thailand SDG11, SDG12, SDG7, and SDG3 are among between 2020 and 2050 based on single projecother areas with relatively more knowledge protions for each country. Knowledge production duction. In comparison to the knowledge prowhich is connected to the linkage of SDG9 and duction patterns of the other countries, SDG15 SDG11 for innovative solutions to sustainable on life on land that involves natural habitats urbanization will be an area that requires conreceive relatively greater attention. Among the

comparisons in Figures 1 and 2, the knowledge tinued attention given increases in urbanization

production pattern of Kazakhstan when viewed in all countries. It is foreseen that a shared and

based on the linkage of SDG9 with the oth- sustainable future will be possible through sci-

er SDGs has a large dominance of SDG8 while entific and technological cooperation for sus-

SDG2 on zero hunger receives the next highest tainable urbanization that is also supported by

priority. The topics that are the most researched multiple other goals, including SDG7, SDG12

in this area include agro-industrial complexes and SDG13 for clean energy, resource efficiency

and food security. as well as climate action.

Figure 2. Knowledge production patterns across SDGs for Thailand, Pakistan, Hungary, and Kazakhstan.

Thailand Pakistan Hungary Kazakhstan